John Butler

What lies beneath?

Stock markets have been rising and financial markets may appear calm on the surface but there is trouble brewing underneath. Interest rates may soon begin to rise again, which could possibly trigger a debt and currency crisis.

The poisoned chalice

As the electioneering begins it’s worth considering why Sunak called a snap election in the first place. Has something spooked him into action? Indeed, there are several prominent possibilities…

Don’t take the grid for granted

Its entirely normal to take certain things for granted. Few of these come closer in our everyday experience than flicking on a light or other electrical switch. Successful investors know better. Nothing should be taken for granted, including our electrical grid.

The answer to global monetary mayhem

As the Ukraine war tilts in Russia’s favour, the US is becoming ever more aggressive in its use of sanctions, asset seizures and other measures to isolate Russia. Beyond a certain point, these measures could destabilise the international monetary system.

The prize of Zaporizhzhia

Russia seized Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia during the first days of the Ukraine war. Energy infrastructure has played an important role throughout and, regardless of how the war plays out, energy, including nuclear, remains an absolute “must-invest” sector…

Born to run

Investing may not be a race per se but, if it were, it would most closely resemble a marathon rather than a sprint. As it happens, distance running was central to human evolution, including the development of our brains. Yet we retain certain primitive biases that can interfere with investing. Fortunately there are ways to compensate.

Another look behind the headlines

Inside this issue: The US economy appears strong on the surface Beneath, it appears weak The private sector may already be in recession Back in…

Sailing on the Titanic

Debt, deficits, devaluation… inflation, stagflation, war… Yes, things are bad and they are likely to get even worse over the next few years. Investors need to take action to protect their wealth in what are going to become even more challenging times.

Gold has broken out; silver to follow

The global financial and monetary system is living on leverage and borrowed time. John Butler interviews financial and monetary expert Alasdair Macleod, where they discuss the risks to financial assets and currencies and why gold and silver prices will keep marching higher.

Other people’s money

Open an introductory Economics textbook and one of the first things you’re likely to come across is a definition of what, exactly, Economics is. These tend to be short, for example, “The science of resource allocation” or “The study of production, exchange and consumption”.

Back to the future: of energy

Last week the UK government announced that it would authorise the construction of a handful of new, gas-fired power plants. While the government claims that it is still fully committed to its ambitious net-zero plans, it pointed out that, due to the unexpectedly poor performance of both wind and solar, in particular for base power production, more traditional, backup capacity was necessary.

The EU’s deepening existential crisis

Last weekend, Portuguese voters went to the polls. The centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) party won the most seats but far short of a majority. The far-right Chega party quadrupled its seats and emerged as controversial coalition kingmaker.

Laffer’s paradox and the folly of high taxation, part 2

In part 1, I presented Arthur Laffer’s eponymous curve and the implications it has for British tax policies. In brief, there is really no way for tax rates to go anywhere but lower from here.

Laffer’s paradox and the folly of high taxation, part 1

Arthur Laffer, legendary US economist and adviser to two presidents, visited the UK last month. His message: taxes are way too high. If not lowered dramatically, high rates of tax threaten an economic “destitution”.

Will the “big tech” rally continue?

In this edition of Week in Review I sit down with my Southbank Investment Research colleague and tech guru Sam Volkering to analyse the most recent rally in “big tech” stocks and whether this trend can continue. Sam is confident that it can, and for a variety of reasons.

When worlds collide

Artificial intelligence is “colliding” with our world Where some see danger, others see opportunity A sci-fi classic can help to illustrate the point One of…

The triumph of geopolitics, part 2

Amid recession and war, German opposition parties are rising in the polls The government is now pursuing a hydrogen energy dream This might go over…

The triumph of geopolitics, part 1

Germany is headed for yet another Energiewende This one might be even more disastrous Will Britain follow a similar (misguided) course? The economy is in…

Looking behind the headlines

Economic data can be misleading It can also be subject to political spin This is particularly true in election years “There are three kinds of…

From pitchforks to politics

Widespread EU “pitchfork” protests continued this week The far right is surging in the polls The EU is on course to become ungovernable Although scarcely…