John Butler

The EU’s deepening existential crisis

Last weekend, Portuguese voters went to the polls. The centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) party won the most seats but far short of a majority. The far-right Chega party quadrupled its seats and emerged as controversial coalition kingmaker.

Laffer’s paradox and the folly of high taxation, part 2

In part 1, I presented Arthur Laffer’s eponymous curve and the implications it has for British tax policies. In brief, there is really no way for tax rates to go anywhere but lower from here.

Laffer’s paradox and the folly of high taxation, part 1

Arthur Laffer, legendary US economist and adviser to two presidents, visited the UK last month. His message: taxes are way too high. If not lowered dramatically, high rates of tax threaten an economic “destitution”.

Will the “big tech” rally continue?

In this edition of Week in Review I sit down with my Southbank Investment Research colleague and tech guru Sam Volkering to analyse the most recent rally in “big tech” stocks and whether this trend can continue. Sam is confident that it can, and for a variety of reasons.

When worlds collide

Artificial intelligence is “colliding” with our world Where some see danger, others see opportunity A sci-fi classic can help to illustrate the point One of…

The triumph of geopolitics, part 2

Amid recession and war, German opposition parties are rising in the polls The government is now pursuing a hydrogen energy dream This might go over…

The triumph of geopolitics, part 1

Germany is headed for yet another Energiewende This one might be even more disastrous Will Britain follow a similar (misguided) course? The economy is in…

Looking behind the headlines

Economic data can be misleading It can also be subject to political spin This is particularly true in election years “There are three kinds of…

From pitchforks to politics

Widespread EU “pitchfork” protests continued this week The far right is surging in the polls The EU is on course to become ungovernable Although scarcely…

Money, forgotten casualty of war

Are frozen Russian foreign reserves being dangled as a carrot to lure Ukraine to the negotiating table? Does dollar “weaponisation” threaten the US currency’s global…

The geopolitical year ahead

Multiple geopolitical trends are converging There could be huge financial market implications Investors need to be aware and to prepare The past two years have…

The EU’s worst nightmare: pitchforks!

Farmers are revolting in Germany and neighbouring countries Populist parties continue to rise in the polls The EU may not survive in its current form…

2023: The year the “Green Dream” died

2023: an “annus horribilus” for green energy New energy trends are taking hold everywhere The energy sector remains an absolute “must invest” Notwithstanding extensive, taxpayer-funded…

Hell has frozen over

Russia’s defeat of Ukraine is changing European thinking There is growing pressure to remilitarise Nuclear rearmament is even on the table It is now late…

“Democracy” is what those in power say it is

Populism is on the rise globally Some claim this threatens democracy But does history really bear that out? Former Prime Minister Churchill once famously quipped…

Big tech, big expensive

Big tech has been on a roll this year The Nasdaq is up over 50% Small tech offers much better value Leading the global stock…

Elvira, Queen of the Desert: part two

The “Oil Axis” of Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iran met last week Reports indicate they discussed how to evade US sanctions Did they also discuss…

Elvira, Queen of the Desert: part one

President Putin’s trip to Saudi Arabia and the UAE made headlines Iran also joined in Riyadh Oil and sanctions were on the agenda. But why…

From Pearl Harbor to the Persian Gulf

The Dec 7, 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor was largely about oil The US Navy protects oil resources the world over It doesn’t protect renewables,…

“Someday this war’s gonna end”

The Ukraine war is winding down Hopefully the peace settlement lasts Nevertheless, defence stocks are a buy Like a number of people my age, I’m…