Geopolitics

God, climate change and the deficit on Thanksgiving

We had spent the day before Thanksgiving splitting firewood. All day, we loaded the logs — oak, locust, cherry, and poplar — onto the splitter. Once split, the fire logs were stacked in the barn.

Will the BRICS put up with more abuse, or divorce the dollar?

Each financial boom and bust sears a new piece of obscure finance jargon into our memory. And in 2025, we’ll be adding a new one to that list: BRICS.

Ten years of wars and inflation

On Friday 22 November, US debt hit a new record – $36 trillion. There was also this little news item last week – Reuters: “Putin says Ukraine war is going global”.

World Opium War III has begun

In today’s issue: Why did Trump justify tariffs with fentanyl? What is Opium War III? A dark period of history is more than just rhyming…

Mr. Trump is an unlikely Moses, let alone Milei

The best case is a boom. Like the one set off by Ronald Reagan in 1980. But if there’s a best case, there’s also a worst case. Today, we begin looking for it.

Did China just sink offshore wind forever?

The latest cables to fall victim are Baltic links between Finland, Germany, Lithuania and Sweden. Again, a Chinese vessel is at the centre of the story.

When Trump’s Golden Age will get badly tarnished

Nobody knows the future. We bet on the patterns of history — in politics and markets. Those patterns suggest that The Donald will face long odds.

Is Elon Musk America’s Javier Milei?

The only thing that can save Western governments from a major debt crisis is dramatic spending cuts. But those are politically impossible… right?

UK goes to the left as the world goes to the right

What if Trump is just the beginning? A series of elections are set to take place in 2025. And they could leave Sir Keir Starmer marooned on a leftist island.

The Primary Political Trend

Big Government was triumphant. And Big Government means big spending, big budgets, big deficits, big debt... and knucklehead, big-shot delusions.

Yes, John called it!

Our investment director John Butler is on the record as having predicted a sizeable Trump victory. Not only has Trump won by a huge margin; he appears to have held the Republican House majority and even to have flipped the Senate. What might this mean for the financial markets? In this interview, John offers some insights.

What the BRICS are really up to

The BRICS sound like the original United States – a confederation of independent, sovereign states, rather than the more modern version of the centralised US.

Prepare to be electoral collateral damage

Donald Trump’s odds of winning the US presidential election have soared in recent days. But what’s behind the move? And should UK investors care?

Is the NHS ready for a plague of Trump Derangement Syndrome?

As I write this, the shockwaves of Kamala Harris’ disastrous Fox News interview are still echoing in the empty echo chambers of left-leaning minds.

Charm City has gone to the dogs, literally

Real estate prices never go down? By our estimates, Baltimore property prices have been in decline for nearly 100 years. And it’s only getting worse…

Debt explains Labour’s “odd habits of locomotion”

Politicians have talked about debt and deficits for decades. But it was just a political hockey puck to pass around. Until Liz Truss changed everything.

Is the War for Immigrants over already?

In 2019 I claimed the Western world is about to have “a War for Immigrants”. That has since come to pass, with immigration rates ballooning. Now what?

The problems are bipartisan

The candidates are like two drunken bus drivers, each racing to the same washed-out bridge. One may do a little better job of staying in his lane, but...

Will CCS save the planet… or destroy us?

Even under the most optimistic scenarios, we won’t be able to decarbonise everything we do. Which begs the question how we’ll reach net zero by 2050…

The Maldives are underwater after all… on their debt

In net zero, governments are embarking on the costliest project in the history of humanity. And from a position of dangerously high debt to begin with.